What to know:
- Bitcoin traders are pricing in only a 2.5% move around Friday’s U.S. inflation report, signaling a potential non-event.
- Implied volatility in bitcoin has dropped to its lowest since January, even as March CPI is expected to hit 3.4% amid an Iran war–driven energy shock.
- Analysts say each inflation reading could sway Fed rate-cut expectations and bitcoin’s next move, highlighting a gap between expert concerns and market pricing.
Everyone’s watching the latest U.S. inflation report, which comes out Friday. It’s considered a key signal of where prices are headed, especially with the ongoing situation in Iran and how that’s been pushing prices up.
However, recent trading activity suggests that bitcoin isn’t currently having a significant impact on the overall market.
According to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, the bitcoin market currently expects a relatively small price change of around 2.5% either up or down based on the latest inflation data. He told CoinDesk that this expectation is based on the prices of options and other derivative products, which show how much traders anticipate Bitcoin’s price will move in the near future.
As a researcher tracking Bitcoin, I’ve observed that the recent 2.5% price fluctuation is completely normal, falling well within its typical daily movements. This suggests the market wasn’t surprised by the latest inflation data and isn’t anticipating any significant price swings as a result.
Trading is currently stable, as shown by a key measure of market expectations – the BVIV index. This index, which tracks volatility over the next 30 days, has fallen to 46.5%, its lowest level since January 31st, according to TradingView data.
From my analysis, this suggests we can expect the price to move around 2.9% daily, which is actually a bit lower than the recent 30-day average of 3.4%. Essentially, implied volatility – which is driven by how much demand there is for options – gives us a sense of how much traders anticipate the price to fluctuate in the near future.
Traders don’t seem to be reacting much to Friday’s consumer price index (CPI) report, which is surprising. This data could give us an early look at how the war in Iran, which started in late February, is affecting inflation.
According to Commerzbank, while the March U.S. price data probably doesn’t show the complete impact yet, it offers a first glimpse of how the conflict in the Middle East might be affecting prices in the United States.
Because of the conflict in Iran and the resulting rise in energy prices, which are pushing inflation higher, financial markets now anticipate fewer interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.
CPI due Friday
The latest inflation numbers, due out Friday at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, are expected to show a 3.4% increase in the cost of living for March compared to a year ago. This is a significant jump from the 2.4% increase seen in February, according to MarketWatch. When excluding food and energy prices, which tend to fluctuate, the core inflation rate is predicted to be up 2.7%, slightly higher than the 2.5% increase in February.
My research indicates a significant increase is primarily driven by the recent spike in fuel and energy costs. This was largely triggered by the conflict in Iran and the subsequent surge in oil prices. Specifically, we saw U.S. gasoline prices jump in March 2026, breaking $4 per gallon nationally – a level not seen since August 2022.
From where I’m sitting as an analyst, it’s clear that overall economic factors – especially what’s happening with inflation – are really the things moving the market right now. It feels like those macro trends are far more influential than anything else at the moment.
According to Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo, recent increases in energy prices are still impacting costs, making each new inflation report particularly important for the crypto market. A lower-than-expected inflation reading could lead to discussions about potential interest rate cuts, while a higher reading would likely reinforce the expectation that interest rates will remain high for an extended period. Nexo manages $8 billion in digital assets.
According to Timothy Misir, Research Head at BRN, the future direction of Bitcoin’s price depends on two key events: the release of inflation data on Friday and the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for April 28th and 29th.
According to Misir, these upcoming events will show investors whether officials still believe they can control inflation despite the recent rise in oil prices, or if the war is pushing them to maintain current interest rates.
Basically, experts and traders disagree on how important Friday’s inflation report will be. Either the markets are correct to downplay it, or the report will significantly change things. Friday’s release will reveal who is correct.
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2026-04-09 11:36