Some traders on Polymarket made significant profits by betting on a potential ceasefire between the US and Iran, with one trader’s earnings reportedly increasing by around 3,500%.
Recent market gains happened after tensions between the US and Iran eased, leading to increases in stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies. Experts are now wondering if the accuracy of these successful investments was due to more than just chance.
Polymarket US-Iran Ceasefire Profits Spark Insider Trading Debate
Lookonchain, a company that analyzes blockchain data, recently identified a trader named BlueHorseshoe86 who made a profit of $194,000 by correctly predicting there wouldn’t be a ceasefire between the US and Iran. This adds to their earlier earnings of $260,000 from a successful bet in January that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power.
According to Lookonchain, the trader’s profits have reached $440,000, earned from successful bets on both the removal of Maduro and a ceasefire between the US and Iran.
A separate trader turned $13,200 into $477,544, a gain of approximately 3,500%.
A financial analyst wondered, “He really sold everything he owned in one go. What information did he have that led him to do that?”
This is unbelievable! Someone turned a $13,200 bet into $472,000 by predicting a US-Iran ceasefire today. That’s a massive 3,500% return on their investment in a single trade! It makes you wonder if they just got lucky, or if they had inside information from the Trump administration.
— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) April 8, 2026
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Polymarket History, a service that tracks prediction markets, identified a wallet that made over $400,000 by accurately predicting when Iran would begin military operations and when the conflict would end. The wallet was labeled as “suspicious.”
“Created just before the operation. Two perfect calls. Over $400K in profit,” the post read.
Although we haven’t proven anyone traded on inside information, unusually large and timely profits have raised suspicions of insider trading on prediction markets. This isn’t a one-time event; it’s part of a growing trend of possible illegal activity on these platforms.
Unusual profit patterns have caught the attention of those who run prediction markets, as well as US politicians. In response, lawmakers are proposing new laws to increase monitoring and prevent government officials from betting on issues that could affect them.
As a researcher following Polymarket, I’ve been reviewing their recently updated rules for maintaining market integrity. Essentially, they’ve clarified that trading using stolen confidential information is prohibited, as is acting on insider tips or betting on events you have the power to affect. It’s a good step towards ensuring a fairer and more trustworthy platform.
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2026-04-08 10:06