Monero’s 16% Plunge: A Tale of Indecisive Investors and Fickle Charts!

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Monero (XMR), that most capricious of cryptocurrencies, now teeters at $359.55, a mere 0.61% lower, yet trapped in an ascending channel, like a bird in a cage with a very clever lock.

Two money flow indicators, like two quarreling lovers, send conflicting signals-bearish breakdown or potential reversal? Traders, caught in this dance, must choose their side with the care of a man picking a duel partner.

Mixed Signals Suggest Weak Conviction From XMR Holders

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), that most fickle of indicators, now reads -0.18, its lowest since February. A peak of +0.16 on February 25, then a descent into despair. A descending trendline, like a jealous lover, keeps XMR’s netflow in check.

A descending trendline drawn directly on the CMF shows that XMR’s netflow deterioration has been steady and deliberate. The indicator crossed below zero around March 5 and has not returned above it since. A true tragedy of numbers.

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A CMF at -0.18 signals that volume-weighted selling pressure is substantial. For this reading to reverse, buyers would need to close multiple consecutive candles in the upper half of their daily range – something price has struggled to do under the descending trendline resistance near $370. A feat as likely as convincing a cat to fetch a ball.

Despite the bearish CMF reading, the Money Flow Index (MFI) tells a different story. Since late January, price has been making lower highs while the MFI has been making higher lows – a textbook bullish divergence. Or, as the French would say, “C’est la vie.”

The MFI currently sits at 58.61, in neutral territory. The ascending trendline drawn on the indicator has held through multiple XMR price dips, including the tests near $305-$310 in early February. A testament to resilience, or perhaps just stubbornness.

However, divergences are warning signals, not entry signals. The MFI has been building this pattern for nearly two months without triggering a sustained price reversal. A break of the MFI trendline below the 40 level would erase the divergence and confirm the CMF’s bearish reading. A drama with no happy ending, I fear.

XMR Price May Still Break Down

The 2-day chart shows XMR price trading within an ascending channel, currently near the upper band resistance around $372-$375. The Fibonacci 1.236 extension at $355.94 and the 1.5 level at $372.95 frame the current price on either side. A precarious balancing act, like a tightrope walker with a hangover.

A measured move of -16.08% is annotated on the chart from the current range, projecting a target near $279.69 – close to the Fibonacci 0 level at $276.28. A tale of woe for those who thought the price would rise.

The critical support level is the ascending channel’s lower boundary, currently near $332. A daily close below that line would activate the 16.08% measured move toward $279. The $316 Fibonacci 0.618 level would offer an intermediate buffer. A buffer as useful as a screen door in a hurricane.

To invalidate the bearish setup, XMR would need a confirmed daily close above the descending trendline near $370. The recent launch of a new native Monero iOS wallet with privacy features could attract fresh buyers, but a trendline break with volume is required before that fundamental narrative can drive sustained price recovery. A wishful thinking, perhaps, but what is life without a little hope?

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2026-03-23 12:08