46% of Bitcoin’s Treasure is Sinking! Will It Drown?

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Once a mighty treasure, Bitcoin has tumbled from its $126k peak, now trapped in a sneaky descending channel where sellers dart out every time it tries to climb. A tale of woe, indeed.

The king coin now trades at $66,689, a 20% drop on the monthly chart and 47% from its All-Time High. A sad tale indeed, where even the most ardent fans are left with a frown.

With Bitcoin stuck in a prolonged yawn of a bearish trend, investors and all market participants are facing losses so steep, they’d make a pirate weep. A true tragedy of epic proportions.

46% of the Bitcoin supply is now weeping

Based on Bitcoin’s Realized Price UTXO Age Bands, most holders have clung to their coins for over a month, only to find them colder than a witch’s toe. A cruel twist of fate, if ever there was one.

The realized price for 1-month holders hovers around $69k, while the 1-3 month crowd sits at $90k. But alas, Bitcoin has slipped below these levels, leaving all in the red. A tale of woe, indeed.

As a result, Bitcoin’s supply trading at a loss has increased extensively. According to Maartun, approximately 9.09 million bitcoins are now in the red, representing about 46% of the circulating supply. A veritable sea of sorrow.

These losses are spread across both short-term and long-term holders. Checkonchain data showed that short-term holders’ unrealized loss currently sits around $113.9 billion. A fortune lost, and not a moment too soon.

At the same time, long-term holders’ unrealized losses currently hold around $140 billion. The sustained rise in losses indicates a strong bearish trend prevailing in the market. A dragon of despair, if you will.

Usually, higher loss rates create a sell-pressure risk if holders panic and capitulate, fearing further losses. In fact, on the 2nd of March, realized loss jumped to $705 million, according to Checkonchain. A dramatic turn of events, to say the least.

Strategy and DATs count more losses

With losses mounting across the market, Strategy [MSTR] and other institutional investors are now operating underwater. A fate as bleak as a cave without a light.

While MSTR has continued to accumulate during this bear market, raising its holdings to 717,724, the DCA strategy has done nothing to help. A futile effort, like trying to bail a boat with a teaspoon.

As such, with an average cost basis of $76k, 67% of Strategy’s Bitcoin stack is in the red. The firm’s holdings value fell from a $79 billion peak to $47 billion at press time. A tale of hubris, perhaps?

The same holds for the entire Digital Asset Treasuries holding BTC, with the total value of holdings falling from $125 million to $73 million. A sad decline, indeed.

What the continued losses mean for BTC

Traditionally, rising losses have preceded bearish implications for the market. Holders tend to capitulate, reducing risk exposure, which causes higher selling pressure. A dance of doom, if you ask me.

Often, higher pressure accelerates downside risk, leading to lower prices, as recently observed. Currently, the market is in a strong downward momentum, as evidenced by momentum indicators. A rollercoaster with no brakes.

Looking at the Relative Vigor Index (RVGI), which is now in negative territory, suggests higher selling and less buying activity. Such market conditions create room for more losses on the crypto’s price charts. A grim outlook, to say the least.

This possibility is further evidenced by the Future Grand Trend indicator, as it pointed to a slip below $60k to $59,213. A chilling prediction, if ever there was one.

Even more concerning is that, per the FGT, BTC is likely to continue trading within a descending channel, with $45k as the bearish case. A bleak future, indeed.

Final Summary

  • Bitcoin losses have surged, with approximately 9.09 million BTC, or 46% of the Bitcoin supply, currently in the red. A tale of sorrow and sighs.
  • BTC continues to trade within a descending channel, down 20% the past 30 days. A spiral of despair, if ever there was one.

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2026-03-02 14:00