ETH’s 6% Bounce: Can It Break $2,200?

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So Ethereum just crawled back about 6% in the last 24 hours, back toward $2,000 after the liquidation chaos earlier this month. Nice comeback, but guess what-the momentum keeps hitting a wall at around $2,200. It’s like, move along, wall, we’re trying to breathe here.

Open Interest Collapse Signals Deleveraging

Across exchanges, open interest has fallen hard from the dizzying highs-a leverage reset, if you’re into corporate buzzwords. Fewer liquidations means less chaos, sure, but it also means fewer maniacs betting the house on a breakout. For a real breakout, you need fresh positioning. Right now OI is about $12 billion; you’d need to push above $13 billion to flip the trend, and maybe over $17.5 billion to make the crowd believe again. And yes, I know, numbers are exciting at poker night too.

Funding Rates Normalize After Negative Spike

Funding rates went from a negative dive to a mild positive flip. It shows the bearish frenzy cooled a bit, the short squeeze pressure eased, and positions drifted toward neutral. But don’t expect this to magically reverse the trend. When the market’s bullish, funding rates go positive and you end up paying the fee if you’re long. Spoiler: not a thrilling plot twist.

On-Chain Activity Elevated but Cooling

Active addresses surged during the volatility, because everyone loves a good roller coaster. Now the activity is cooling a bit, though still elevated. For a real bullish case, on-chain participation would need to rise in tandem with price. Right now, it’s more stabilization than expansion-like showing up to the party, but the punch bowl isn’t exactly overflowing.

Structure: Relief Rally Within a Bearish Trend

On the daily chart, the vibe is weak. Price sits below the $2,200-$2,240 zone, riding a descending short-term trendline, and flirting with the 50 RSI like a doorbell that won’t stop ringing. After tumbling from the $2,200 region, ETH wandered to the $1,900 area before catching its breath. Until $2,200 is reclaimed, the overall tilt stays bearish. It’s a relief rally, not a revolution.

What’s Next for the Ethereum Price Rally?

Right now, ETH is sweating trying to break above the descending line and reclaim $2,200. If the breakout shows up with solid volume, the upside targets could be $2,400 first, then $2,600. A breakout accompanied by rising open interest would hint at a genuine shift. Otherwise, if $2,200 remains undefeated, the downside risk could drag you toward $1,744, and maybe near $1,500 if the pressure doesn’t quit. Holding this range feels like mission critical for any bullish continuation; otherwise, expect more lower highs and lower lows. Is that a mortgage you want to sign up for?

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2026-02-25 18:51