Bitcoin’s $45K Plunge: Larry David’s Worst Nightmare?

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So, Bitcoin‘s in this weird phase, right? Like, it’s not quite “we’re all gonna be rich!” but also not “sell your house and live in a van” territory. It’s like that awkward first date where you’re not sure if you should lean in for a kiss or just shake hands and say, “It was nice meeting you.” Market’s in a transitional state, they say. Transitional? More like constipation, if you ask me.

Apparently, it’s a tug of war between the long-term believers and the short-term gamblers. You know, the kind of people who think Bitcoin is a slot machine. Spoiler alert: on-chain data says we’re headed south. Like, Antarctica south. But hey, what do I know? I still think a $20 bill is a fortune.

CVDD: The Crystal Ball No One Asked For

So, this guy Ali Martinez-crypto genius or just really good at guessing?-says the Cumulative Value – Days Destroyed (CVDD) has been calling Bitcoin’s bottom since 2012. Big deal. My uncle calls the Super Bowl winner every year, and he’s still living in his mom’s basement. Anyway, this CVDD thing says Bitcoin’s bottom is $45,225. Great. Another number to ignore while I stress-eat my way through this market.

Apparently, CVDD was launched by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009. Or was it? Maybe it was just a guy named Steve who really liked spreadsheets. Either way, it’s supposed to track when long-term holders finally crack and sell their coins. Because, you know, nothing says “I believe in the future” like dumping your Bitcoin when it’s down 50%.

Since 2012, this CVDD thing has been spot-on. Spot-on like my ex’s ability to show up late to every single date. It measures when old coins get spent, which apparently means long-term holders are either geniuses or masochists. You decide.

Is Bitcoin’s Safety Net Made of Swiss Cheese?

Over the years, CVDD has been like that friend who always says, “Don’t worry, I got you,” but then forgets your birthday. In 2015, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin prices hovered around the CVDD line before bouncing back. So, it’s either a safety net or a really expensive placebo. Your call.

Right now, CVDD is at $45,225. Deep value zone, they say. Sounds more like a deep-sea dive without oxygen. Doesn’t mean Bitcoin has to hit that number, but if it does, well, let’s just say I’ll be reevaluating my life choices. Again.

When Bitcoin’s above CVDD, everything’s sunshine and rainbows. Below it? It’s like everyone’s suddenly an expert in doomsday prepping. Me? I’m just here for the popcorn.

So, Bitcoin’s consolidating. Big whoop. Keep an eye on that $45,225 line, they say. If it dips, it’s a red flag. If it stays up, we’re golden. Or at least bronze. As of now, BTC’s at $70,000. Up 2% today. Yawn. Wake me up when it hits $1 million or $10. Whichever comes first.

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2026-02-15 18:14