Bitcoin: Will It Crash Harder Than Liz Lemon’s Dating Life?

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So, some genius named Sherlock (yeah, like the detective, but for crypto) is here to tell us Bitcoin might nosedive to ~$38k if history repeats itself. Meanwhile, other folks are like, “Nah, institutions will save the day, maybe just a 55%-60% dip.” Because, you know, Wall Street is basically a superhero now.

  • Sherlock, our crypto Sherlock, says past drawdowns (93%, 86%, 84%, 77%) mean we’re due for a 70% drop. Math is hard, but apparently not for him. Bottom line? $38k. Good luck, everyone!
  • Critics on X (formerly Twitter, because why not rename everything?) say institutions will cushion the fall. Because nothing says “safety net” like a bunch of suits in a boardroom.
  • Sherlock’s like, “Reflexivity cuts both ways, folks. Trying to time the bottom is like trying to time a Liz Lemon meltdown-risky and probably messy.” Wise words.

Bitcoin’s been under more pressure than a 30 Rock writer’s deadline, and analysts are debating if it’ll hit $38k. Spoiler alert: no one really knows, but everyone’s got an opinion.

Bitcoin to $38k? One Analyst Says It’s Like a Bad Second Date-Going Downhill Fast

The crypto broke below key support levels faster than Jenna Maroney breaks into song. It’s all part of a corrective phase that started after Bitcoin peaked in October 2025. Because, of course, it peaked in October.

Bitcoin bear market drawdowns have a clear pattern:

2011: -93% (the original drama queen)

2015: -86% (still extra)

2018: -84% (getting slightly less dramatic)

2022: -77% (almost mature)

Every cycle, the drawdown gets smaller, like my patience for meeting minutes. Following this trend, 2026 should be -70%. That’s $38k. Good luck…

– Sherlock | DeFi Researcher (@Sherlockwhale) February 5, 2026

Sherlock (yes, him again) posted this on X, breaking down Bitcoin’s historical drawdowns like he’s breaking down a Tracy Jordan rant. The 2011 cycle? A 93% drop. The biggest correction ever. Because why do things halfway?

Since then, the declines have been like a reality TV show-still dramatic, but slightly less so. 86% in 2015, 84% in 2018, and 77% in 2022. Progress?

If this pattern holds, we’re looking at a 70% drop this time, landing Bitcoin at $38k. Because why not end on a nice, round number?

The post blew up on X faster than a Kenneth story about the cafeteria. Some said institutions will save the day, capping the drop at 55%-60%. Because, again, Wall Street = superhero.

Sherlock’s response? “Reflexivity works both ways.” Translation: Don’t try to time the bottom unless you enjoy emotional rollercoasters.

Bitcoin’s trading at October 2024 levels, according to CoinGecko. Last time it was this low? October 2023. Coincidence? Probably not. But hey, at least it’s consistent.

The asset’s rebounded from its intraday low, but it’s still under more pressure than Jack Donaghy at a feminist book club. Market participants are like, “Is this the bottom? Or just another dip before the real plunge?” Stay tuned, folks.

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2026-02-06 15:51