Monero slips 12% in a day – Is $266 now in play for XMR?

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The privacy-token romance that once fueled rallies across assets like Monero and Zcash [ZEC] has cooled its heels, darling. Investors have swiped right on shinier dramas elsewhere, and Monero’s still sulking in the corner.

Fragile broader market sentiment is doing its best soufflé impression-it stays fragile under the slightest pressure, and that pressure just nudges the privacy-focused crowd toward the exit.

Monero sits smack in the eye of that mini-storm, headlining the decline like a moody lead in an indie show.

Over the past 24 hours, XMR slid about 12%, dragging the sector along and stiffening the bearish vibes as if the market suddenly remembered it watched a sad movie last night.

Market conditions suggest the downside risks aren’t taking a vacation any time soon. Price structure, derivatives positioning, and crowd sentiment are all whispering the same thing: weakness first, recovery later-if at all.

Is a five-month low approaching?

The daily chart isn’t hinting at a cute short-term wobble; it’s signaling a deeper structural breakup with consequences beyond a cameo pullback.

XMR used to respect a rising ascending support line that acted as a launchpad for upside moves, the financial version of a pep talk from a particularly opinionated friend.

That structure helped propel the rally to the $800 peak. The trendline has now failed, and the party’s moved on to a more existential kind of slide.

That breach marked a clear shift in trend dynamics. Price behavior now resembles a sustained corrective phase rather than a brief, dramatic detour.

Based on prior reactions, Monero [XMR] could retrace toward the base of that structure near $266. Such a move would imply a decline of roughly 32% from recent levels, which is basically the financial version of a wet blanket on a summer picnic.

Bearish pressure builds, but not without limits

Liquidity signals continued to flirt with the bears. Capital outflows were visible, reinforcing expectations of ongoing price pressure.

The Money Flow Index (MFI) fell to around 26, a level typically tied to persistent capital exits. More importantly, the indicator kept trending lower, suggesting selling pressure hadn’t found a comfy chair yet.

Even so, volatility-based indicators added a dash of nuance. Bollinger Bands highlighted price zones where reactions often pop up like awkward party guests.

XMR traded near the lower Bollinger Band, a historically short-term bounce zone. A bounce here could nudge price toward the mid-band near $519, with a potential extended move toward $687 if the mood swings correctly.

Until confirmation appeared, sellers retained the floor and near-term action leaned toward downside.

Exchange data adds nuance to the sell-off

That said, perpetual market data paints a layered picture beneath the spot-price drama.

The Long/Short Ratio stayed skewed toward longs, while the OI-Weighted Funding Rate showed longs paying funding. That setup hinted traders were still positioning for upside despite slipping prices.

More importantly, Open Interest dropped sharply to $141.15 million over the past day.

Only $1.87 million of that decline came from liquidations, pointing instead to panic-driven position closures.

That distinction mattered. It suggested selling intensity might be fading, increasing the odds of a temporary bottom forming near the lower Bollinger Band.

From there, XMR could attempt a short-term recovery and test the previously broken ascending support.

Final Thoughts

  • XMR lost its long-held ascending support after a sharp sell-off, extending losses by roughly 12% in 24 hours.
  • Monero’s Open Interest fell to $141.15M, but only $1.87M came from liquidations, suggesting panic exits rather than forced selling.

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2026-02-02 23:40