Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle: The Myth That Just Won’t Die, According to Arthur Hayes

by

Markets

What you absolutely *must* know:

  • Arthur Hayes has declared that Bitcoin‘s classic four-year market cycle? Totally irrelevant now.
  • Global money flows are being stuffed with cash, and that’s not changing anytime soon, he claims.
  • Bear markets of the past? Blame it on global tightening, not some mysterious cycle.

According to Arthur Hayes, Bitcoin is quite unlikely to experience the dreaded bear market in the near future. Why? Because the warm and fuzzy monetary conditions of the moment are expected to persist, rendering the classic four-year halving cycle completely and utterly obsolete. Hooray for that, right?

In his cheekily titled essay “Long Live the King!” published Thursday, Hayes made a bold claim: Bitcoin’s previous crashes-2014, 2018, and 2022-were not due to some mystical cycle of fate or some dark economic wizardry. No, they were just reactions to the tightening of monetary policies in the world’s biggest economies. Classic market stuff, really. After all, we’ve seen Bitcoin lose 70% to 80% of its value every time those tightening policies appeared. Yawn.

CoinDesk, ever the purveyor of refreshing insights, also pointed out that the so-called four-year cycle is really just a reflection of fiat money supply fluctuations. It’s not the halving itself that causes the ups and downs; it’s all that lovely, ever-expanding liquidity in the system.

“As the four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle draws near, traders are eager to whip out their old charts and call an end to this bull run,” Hayes explained, before shaking his head and saying the four-year cycle is dead and buried, and this time, fiat liquidity will keep that bull train rolling for a while yet.

The Halving Cycle, But in Simple Terms

For those not yet knee-deep in crypto jargon, halving is when Bitcoin’s block reward gets cut in half every four years. It’s as if your paycheck just shrunk-wouldn’t that be fun?

Since 2009, Bitcoin has followed a predictable pattern: a nice, cozy bull run leading up to and following the halving, and then a bear market that drags its feet for 16 to 18 months after the halving. Simple.

The most recent halving? It happened in April 2024, which has some market participants all in a tizzy, fearing that Bitcoin’s ascent might soon come to a dramatic halt, followed by a dreary bear market.

But Wait-This Time Is Different

Hold your horses, because Hayes is here to tell you that this bull market isn’t going anywhere just yet. In fact, he argues that the old four-year cycle is invalid now. Why? Because the monetary conditions are not about to tighten-they’re only going to get *looser*. And that means more money, more liquidity, and more gains for Bitcoin. It’s like the market just got its dream job with unlimited vacation days.

The U.S. government is already in “easing mode,” meaning they’re all about making money cheaper and easier to get. Plus, with Japan’s new PM riding high on Abenomics, we’re probably looking at even more fiscal fun. Who’s complaining?

Hayes even points out that President Trump is “running the economy hot,” clearly hoping to boost American growth while slashing the housing cost. It’s all part of a long game to relieve the debt burden-if you believe that, of course. Hey, let’s throw in some financial acrobatics for good measure!

In September 2025, the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (now around 4%) and is expected to go even lower. You know what that means: more money is out there, circulating like a friendly, cash-infused parade. And if you thought China would suddenly become less stimulatory, think again-Beijing isn’t looking to drain liquidity anytime soon. The Chinese government’s focus on avoiding deflation guarantees a steady flow of money into Bitcoin.

Hayes closed his musings with the kind of flair you’d expect from a seasoned market sage: “Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They’re telling us money will get cheaper and more plentiful. And when that happens, Bitcoin is going to keep rising, because why not?”

Read More

2025-10-09 11:08