Bitcoin’s Q3 Slump: Will It Bounce Back or Keep Us 😭?

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Markets 🤑

What to know: 🧐

  • Bitcoin took a 5% nosedive in Week 38 – because apparently, it’s allergic to success. 🌊
  • Treasury firms like Strategy and Metaplanet are feeling the squeeze – low BTC volatility is their new arch-nemesis. 😱
  • Over $17B in options expired on Friday, with max pain at $110,000 – because why not add a little drama? 🎭

So, Bitcoin just wrapped up its third-worst week of the year with a 5% drop. Week 38, you’re officially on the naughty list. 🙅‍♀️ Q3 is up a measly 1%, and September? Well, it’s just sitting there, flat as a pancake. 🥞

Historically, this period is the financial equivalent of a Monday morning – no one likes it. But this time, a few extra catalysts decided to join the party. 🎉 On Friday, $17 billion in options expired, with max pain at $110,000. Because, of course, the spot price needed a gravitational pull. 🌌

The key level to watch? The short-term holder cost basis at $110,775. Bitcoin tested this in August, and in bull markets, it’s like a boomerang – it keeps coming back. But this year? It broke below that level during the April tariff tantrum, hitting $74,500. 😬

Zooming out (because who doesn’t love a good zoom? 🔍), we need to check if Bitcoin is still in an uptrend. Higher highs, higher lows – is the rally still alive, or is it just pretending? 🤔

Analyst Caleb Franzen points out that Bitcoin slipped below its 100-day EMA, with the 200-day EMA at $106,186. The previous low was $107,252 on Sept. 1. To keep the trend intact, Bitcoin needs to hold above that level. No pressure. 😓

Macro Backdrop 🌍

The U.S. economy grew at 3.8% in Q2 – because apparently, it’s been hitting the gym. 💪 Initial jobless claims dropped to 218,000, the lowest since mid-July. Spending data? Right on target. But the core PCE price index rose 0.2% in August 2025 – inflation’s still got a pulse. 💓

The 10-year Treasury yield bounced off 4% and is now at 4.2%. The dollar index (DXY) is chilling at 98. Meanwhile, metals are stealing the show – silver’s at $45, flirting with all-time highs. U.S. equities? Almost at record levels. Bitcoin? Still 10% below its peak. 🥈

Bitcoin-Exposed Equities 📉

Bitcoin treasury companies are feeling the mNAV squeeze. Strategy (MSTR) is barely positive year-to-date – at one point, it dipped below $300. Ouch. 😖 The ratio between Strategy and IBIT is at 4.8, the lowest since October 2024. Underperformance, anyone? 🏆

Strategy’s enterprise mNAV is 1.44 – because why not add a little drama? Michael Saylor’s perpetual preferred stocks (STRK, STRC, STRF) are positive, though. Silver lining? 🌤️

The real issue? Bitcoin’s volatility is MIA. Implied volatility is below 40 – the lowest in years. Saylor pitched MSTR as a volatility play, but now it’s more like a nap. 😴 MSTR’s implied volatility is 68, but its standard deviation has dropped from 89% to 49%. Speculators, where art thou? 🕵️‍♀️

Metaplanet (3350) is holding 25,555 BTC with $500 million to deploy, but its share price is at 517 yen ($3.45) – 70% below its peak. Its mNAV is 1.12, down from 8.44 in June. Market cap: $3.94 billion. Bitcoin NAV: $2.9 billion. Acquisition cost: $106,065. Math is hard. 🧮

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2025-09-27 21:31