Markets 🤑

What to know: 🧐

So, Bitcoin just wrapped up its third-worst week of the year with a 5% drop. Week 38, you’re officially on the naughty list. 🙅‍♀️ Q3 is up a measly 1%, and September? Well, it’s just sitting there, flat as a pancake. 🥞

Historically, this period is the financial equivalent of a Monday morning – no one likes it. But this time, a few extra catalysts decided to join the party. 🎉 On Friday, $17 billion in options expired, with max pain at $110,000. Because, of course, the spot price needed a gravitational pull. 🌌

The key level to watch? The short-term holder cost basis at $110,775. Bitcoin tested this in August, and in bull markets, it’s like a boomerang – it keeps coming back. But this year? It broke below that level during the April tariff tantrum, hitting $74,500. 😬

Zooming out (because who doesn’t love a good zoom? 🔍), we need to check if Bitcoin is still in an uptrend. Higher highs, higher lows – is the rally still alive, or is it just pretending? 🤔

Analyst Caleb Franzen points out that Bitcoin slipped below its 100-day EMA, with the 200-day EMA at $106,186. The previous low was $107,252 on Sept. 1. To keep the trend intact, Bitcoin needs to hold above that level. No pressure. 😓

Macro Backdrop 🌍

The U.S. economy grew at 3.8% in Q2 – because apparently, it’s been hitting the gym. 💪 Initial jobless claims dropped to 218,000, the lowest since mid-July. Spending data? Right on target. But the core PCE price index rose 0.2% in August 2025 – inflation’s still got a pulse. 💓

The 10-year Treasury yield bounced off 4% and is now at 4.2%. The dollar index (DXY) is chilling at 98. Meanwhile, metals are stealing the show – silver’s at $45, flirting with all-time highs. U.S. equities? Almost at record levels. Bitcoin? Still 10% below its peak. 🥈

Bitcoin-Exposed Equities 📉

Bitcoin treasury companies are feeling the mNAV squeeze. Strategy (MSTR) is barely positive year-to-date – at one point, it dipped below $300. Ouch. 😖 The ratio between Strategy and IBIT is at 4.8, the lowest since October 2024. Underperformance, anyone? 🏆

Strategy’s enterprise mNAV is 1.44 – because why not add a little drama? Michael Saylor’s perpetual preferred stocks (STRK, STRC, STRF) are positive, though. Silver lining? 🌤️

The real issue? Bitcoin’s volatility is MIA. Implied volatility is below 40 – the lowest in years. Saylor pitched MSTR as a volatility play, but now it’s more like a nap. 😴 MSTR’s implied volatility is 68, but its standard deviation has dropped from 89% to 49%. Speculators, where art thou? 🕵️‍♀️

Metaplanet (3350) is holding 25,555 BTC with $500 million to deploy, but its share price is at 517 yen ($3.45) – 70% below its peak. Its mNAV is 1.12, down from 8.44 in June. Market cap: $3.94 billion. Bitcoin NAV: $2.9 billion. Acquisition cost: $106,065. Math is hard. 🧮

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• tag. The original title is “Iran Crypto Market Sees 80% Volume Drop After U.S.-Israeli Strikes”. I should make it more Wildean-maybe something like “A Catastrophe in Cryptocurrency: How Iran’s Market Crashed with a Touch of Midas and a Pinch of Apocalypse”. Check character count. Let’s see: “A Catastrophe in Cryptocurrency: How Iran’s Market Crashed with a Touch of Midas and a Pinch of Apocalypse” – that’s 100 exactly. Perfect. Next, the body text. The original starts with a sharp shock after airstrikes. Wilde would use more dramatic language. Replace “sharp shock” with “exquisite tremor” perhaps. Also, add some humor and sarcasm. For example, “killing its supreme leader” could be “killing its supreme leader, a man whose absence will surely be felt in the boardrooms of Tehran’s crypto exchanges.” When talking about the drop in trading volume, Wilde might use metaphors like “the markets, like a well-mannered guest, decided to leave the party early.” For the internet blackout, maybe “the internet, that fickle muse, decided to withdraw her inspiration.” The part about the central bank stopping USDT-toman trading could be phrased as “the central bank, ever the gracious host, requested a temporary pause… leaving traders to navigate a dance floor with all the grace of a somnambulist.” The crypto outflows section: “700% jump in outflows” could become “a 700% surge in departures, as if the very bytes were fleeing the scene of a particularly dull soiree.” Bitcoin’s dip and recovery: “Bitcoin, that temperamental diva, briefly swooned at the news… before resuming her throne at $68K.” I need to ensure that all images are retained and not use tags or any color styles. Also, the title in the tag shouldn’t be repeated in the body. Check that the rewritten sections flow with Wilde’s flair, using epigrams and paradoxical statements. Add humor where possible, like comparing the crypto market to a party or a dance floor. Make sure the HTML structure is preserved, with , , tags intact. Avoid markdown, just HTML. Also, ensure that the repeated paragraph about exchanges remaining operational is included but phrased in Wilde’s style, maybe “operational in what experts describe as a ‘risk-managed’ mode – a phrase that sounds reassuring until one recalls it’s also how banks describe a robbery.” Finally, check that the title is under 100 characters and all original data points are retained with Wildean embellishments. Let me piece this together step by step, ensuring each paragraph is transformed with the appropriate tone and style.End of Thought (19.66s) A Catastrophe in Cryptocurrency: How Iran’s Market Crashed with a Touch of Midas and a Pinch of Apocalypse

2025-09-27 21:31