In the twilight of August, as the sun casts its final, weary rays upon the markets, Bitcoin stands at the precipice of another September-a month that has, in the annals of its brief yet tumultuous history, become synonymous with despair. 🌪️ The air is thick with anticipation, the kind that clings to the skin like a damp cloth, as traders and speculators alike whisper of the “September Curse,” a specter that haunts the cryptosphere with unyielding fidelity. At the hour of writing, BTC lingers near $112,900, its price a mere shadow of the conviction it once held, as bulls and bears engage in a danse macabre, neither willing to yield the field.
The macro winds, fickle and unforgiving, converge upon the narrow strait of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting, a gathering that promises to be as consequential as it is unpredictable. 🏛️ The FOMC, that august body of monetary sages, convenes on September 16-17, with futures markets-those harbingers of collective delusion-pricing in a high probability of a rate cut. Yet, the Fed’s oracles, ever cautious, intone the mantra of “data-dependence,” a phrase as reassuring as it is ambiguous.
The September Specter: A Seasonal Requiem
Seasonality, that old soothsayer, casts its first shadow upon the tape. Daan Crypto Trades, a modern-day Cassandra, laments the “choppy August” and points to a historical anomaly: “In the annals of BTC, never hath both August and September closed in the green.” 🍃 He adds, with a pragmatism born of experience, “Whether thou believest in seasonality or not, what matters is if others do. And if enough souls are swayed, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.” A grim truth, indeed.
The data, cold and unyielding, supports this caution. CoinGlass, that keeper of financial arcana, reveals that over the past 12 years, September has delivered an average negative return of 3.8%, making it the harbinger of doom in the Bitcoin calendar. 🖤 By contrast, Q4-and especially October and November-have historically risen like phoenixes from the ashes, a pattern that explains why traders, ever hopeful, seek to buy late-Q3 weakness.
Yet, there is a glimmer of hope, a faint star in the darkness. Four times in Bitcoin’s history, September has closed in the green-most notably in 2015 and 2016, and again in recent years. In 2023, BTC gained 3.9%, followed by a 7.3% rise in 2024. A small solace, perhaps, but solace nonetheless.
Anthony Pompliano, that indefatigable optimist, offers a broader perspective, rooted in the stubborn statistics: “September is the only month that historically is negative.” 🌧️ He attributes this late-summer malaise to investor behavior-“Everyone is on vacation, far from their screens”-and to the unresolved macro questions that plague traditional finance. “There’s a lot of uncertainty still,” he intones, even as Jerome Powell, the Fed’s high priest, hints at a rate cut in September. Yet, the Fed’s acolytes caution that the decision remains data-driven, a caveat that hangs over the markets like the sword of Damocles.
Pompliano’s second theme is one of consolidation, a necessary purging of excess. “A straight line from $69,000 to six figures,” he argues, “would risk a very big dump on the other side.” Instead, the market “wants… some sort of correction and resetting,” a flushing of leverage to “set a foundation for the price.” He sketches a broad consolidation band-“call it $125,000 to maybe $110,000”-before buyers return, like prodigal sons.
Why is Bitcoin’s price going down?
The answer is simpler than you think.
– Anthony Pompliano (@APompliano) August 27, 2025
This narrative resonates with the systematic funds and discretionary crypto desks, who treat September as a month to reduce risk in thin liquidity, only to rebuild as Q4 flows approach. Daan Crypto Trades, ever tactical, offers his wisdom: “Probably any larger dip in the next 1-2 weeks is the one to bid for the EOY bounce/rally to new all-time highs. We shall see.” 🧐
All Eyes on the Fed: The Macro Gambit
The macro timing, as ever, holds the key. The FOMC’s September 16-17 meeting is the lodestar, with rate futures implying an 85-90% chance of a cut and whispers of a second move by year-end. Powell, at Jackson Hole, signaled that labor-market risks have risen even as inflation risks linger, a delicate balance that has prompted Wall Street’s soothsayers to bring forward their easing timelines. Yet, senior Fed officials stress that every meeting is “live” and contingent on incoming data-a crucial caveat for risk assets that have already embraced the dovish narrative. If a cut materializes, the question for BTC will be whether it validates the existing bid or merely meets expectations and fades.
This week’s focus falls on Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index-the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation. The July PCE data, published on August 29, will provide a crucial read on consumer price pressures, a beacon in the fog of uncertainty. From there, attention pivots to the next major cluster of inflation releases, landing just days before the September FOMC. On September 11, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the CPI and PPI for August, the final inflation checkpoints before the Fed convenes. These could decisively shape the tone of the meeting, a moment of truth for BTC.
At press time, BTC traded at $113,049, a number as fleeting as the hopes it represents. 🤑
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2025-08-28 14:13