Bitcoin Bear Market? Trump Adviser Says “Not Anytime Soon!” but Experts Disagree

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Ah, David Bailey, the self-proclaimed guru of Bitcoin and the “consultant extraordinaire” to none other than President Trump, claims that the dreaded Bitcoin bear market is still many years away. Why? Because of a *glorious* surge in institutional interest in crypto. How quaint.

But wait… there’s a pesky little thing called the four-year cycle that might beg to differ. Crypto analysts, in a rare act of skepticism, are telling CryptoMoon that this market might not be as solid as Bailey envisions. Shocking, right? 😱

Bailey, in his infinite wisdom, posted on X (because, of course, he did), saying, “This is the first time we’ve ever seen real institutional buy-in!” Now that’s some big talk. He’s predicting a future where every “sovereign, bank, insurer, corporate, pension, and more” will own Bitcoin. 🌍 The dream is alive, folks! And we haven’t even captured 0.01% of the “total addressable market” (TAM) yet. Just… wow.

But let’s take a moment to consider this: earlier, Bailey referred to institutional interest as “outliers with marginal bets.” Just a little change in tone there, don’t you think? 😏

Let’s remember, this is the man who founded Bitcoin Magazine and BTC Inc., and helped Trump navigate the world of Bitcoin during his presidency. If anyone knows crypto, it’s him. Or maybe not, who knows?

Moving on, let’s talk institutional crypto interest, which has been steadily growing over the last two years. Investment vehicles like ETFs and crypto treasuries are making waves, with Bitcoin holdings surpassing a staggering $100 billion. Yes, that’s billion with a B. But, as with all things in the crypto world, it’s not as smooth as Bailey might hope.

Reasons for a Crypto Bear Market: The Coming Storm?

In an absolutely *shocking* twist, a report from venture capital firm Breed suggests that most treasury companies will not survive long-term. Gasp! This could send the crypto market spiraling into another bear market faster than you can say “blockchain.”

Speaking to CryptoMoon, CK Zheng, the co-founder of ZX Squared Capital, reminds us that crypto is still incredibly tied to the stock market. If the stock market plunges into a bear market, guess what? Crypto is following right behind it. How convenient! 📉

But don’t despair just yet. Zheng does admit that the stock market almost slipped into a bear market earlier this year but then rebounded. The big question remains: will the bear market hit again? He thinks it’s unlikely, especially after the Fed’s recent pivot to lower interest rates. You know, Jerome Powell and all that jazz.

“Right now, the Fed is signaling a likely interest rate cut in September, which could kick off a low-interest-rate cycle,” he says. Oh, joy. 😎

Meanwhile, Pav Hundal, the Australian crypto broker Swyftx’s lead market analyst, thinks the market is “risk-on,” which is why assets like Bitcoin and Ether are soaring. But don’t get too comfortable. At some point, he says, a re-rotation back into fixed income instruments might occur. Because who doesn’t love a good old fixed-income asset, right? 😆

While Hundal does admit that Bitcoin’s path seems upward, he also throws in a little reminder: “Macro shocks come when you least expect them.” Oh, those delightful surprises! 🥳

“Interest rate rises are politically tricky, but the market expects a rise again in the next year, and that could trigger a correction,” Hundal warns. Hold onto your hats, folks!

End to Crypto Bear Markets: A Dream or Reality?

Let’s rewind to the last bear market: 2022. And before that, 2018. Both times, a *blazing* bull market preceded the crash. Sounds familiar, right? History just loves repeating itself. 🏛️

Ryan McMillin, the co-founder of Merkle Tree Capital, lays out the base case for the market. He thinks we’ll hit a top around Q2 2026, and then the “mild bear market” will hit sometime around mid-2026. Oh, how we all love a good timeline. ⏳

McMillin adds that “leverage unwind from debt-fueled Bitcoin buys or a regulatory shock” could trigger the downturn. Because who doesn’t love a good shock in the market, am I right? 😜

“The Direct Access Trading (DAT) and institutional markets bring massive demand, but they also bring risks. Some DATs will be late to the party, over-leveraged, and unprepared for the volatility. Sounds like a recipe for disaster to me!” McMillin says.

But fear not, dear reader! McMillin also hints that there might not be a bear market at all. You know, like gold after its glorious rise post-2000s ETF launch. Can you feel the optimism? 🌟

In conclusion, Bailey’s dreams of a Bitcoin utopia might not align with reality. In the end, we’ll probably just keep seeing market cycles with regular corrections. After all, who doesn’t love a good opportunity to buy the dip? 📉

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2025-08-25 07:36