Markets
What to know, dear reader, in this absurd world of numbers and tokens:
- Hyperliquid’s market share has dwindled like a nose in one of my stories, yet it clings to 62% of open interest, says the ever-wise Patrick Scott. 🧙♂️
- Scott proclaims Hyperliquid’s revenue and liquidity make it more investable than its rivals Aster, Lighter, and edgeX-a true hero in a sea of mediocrity! 🎭
- Expansion efforts like HyperEVM, USDH stablecoin, and HIP-3 could reduce its dependence on perps trading, or so Scott dreams. 🌟
Ah, a new thesis from DeFi analyst Patrick Scott, a man who sees through the fog of crypto as clearly as Akaky Akakievich sees his new coat! Despite losing market share to its rivals, Hyperliquid remains the most investable decentralized exchange for perpetual futures-or so he claims. But who are we to doubt such a sage? 🤔
Perp DEX market in flux, or a comedy of errors?
Perpetual futures-or perps, as the cool kids call them-are crypto derivatives that allow traders to speculate on prices without an expiry date. The decentralized platforms that host them, known as perp DEXes, have surged in popularity as traders flee the centralized exchanges (CEXes) like Binance, as if running from a noseless bureaucrat! 🏃♂️💨
Scott notes that perp DEXes have grown from less than 2% of CEX perpetual trading volume in 2022 to more than 20% last month. Hyperliquid, issuer of the HYPE token, has been the nose-er, I mean, the driving force behind this growth. 🌪️
Yet, recent shifts have raised eyebrows thicker than a Gogol novel. Hyperliquid’s share of perp DEX volume fell from 45% to a mere 8% in recent weeks, while Binance-affiliated rival Aster ballooned to more than $270 billion in weekly trades. Other upstarts like Lighter and edgeX also posted gains so large, they’d make even Chichikov blush! 💰
Why Hyperliquid still stands out, or does it?
Scott argues that Hyperliquid’s fundamentals set it apart, like a nose that refuses to fall off. The exchange continues to generate strong revenue, trading at what he calls a “reasonable multiple” compared to peers, with user stickiness reflected in open interest. 🧲
“Unlike volume and revenue, which measure activity, open interest measures liquidity. It’s much stickier,” he wrote, noting Hyperliquid still commands about 62% of the perp DEX open interest market. Sticky indeed, like a Gogol plot twist! 🍯
Beyond trading, Scott highlights expansion plans including the HyperEVM network, already hosting over 100 protocols and $2 billion in total value locked, and USDH, a stablecoin backed by reserves held with BlackRock and Superstate. Because who doesn’t love a good stablecoin? 💎
Another initiative, HIP-3, would allow builders to launch new perps markets by staking large amounts of HYPE, creating what Scott calls a “supply sink” for the token. A sink, you say? Perhaps it’s where all the lost market share goes! 🚰
Scott cautions that his thesis would be invalidated if Hyperliquid’s open interest or revenue dropped materially, or if USDH failed to gain liquidity over the next year. But for now, he insists Hyperliquid is better positioned than competitors running heavy incentive programs. After all, who needs incentives when you have a nose-I mean, a plan? 🗺️
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2025-10-03 07:58